Pre-tourney Rankings
North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2016-17
Overall
Predictive Rating+20.6#3
Expected Predictive Rating+19.1#9
Pace75.2#35
Improvement-5.2#339

Offense
Total Offense+12.5#4
First Shot+6.6#29
After Offensive Rebound+5.9#1
Layup/Dunks+3.6#44
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#53
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#199
Freethrows+1.0#109
Improvement+0.5#151

Defense
Total Defense+8.1#22
First Shot+5.5#42
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#4
Layups/Dunks+5.8#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#303
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#246
Freethrows+2.9#32
Improvement-5.7#348
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.7% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 37.8% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 90.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed 1.7 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round97.9% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen75.5% n/a n/a
Elite Eight48.0% n/a n/a
Final Four27.8% n/a n/a
Championship Game15.6% n/a n/a
National Champion8.1% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 2 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2016 223   Tulane W 95-75 98%     1 - 0 +16.1 +13.1 +1.6
  Nov 13, 2016 124   Chattanooga W 97-57 96%     2 - 0 +39.6 +16.3 +19.7
  Nov 15, 2016 226   Long Beach St. W 93-67 99%     3 - 0 +19.4 +12.9 +5.8
  Nov 18, 2016 264   @ Hawaii W 83-68 98%     4 - 0 +11.5 +7.7 +3.4
  Nov 22, 2016 20   Oklahoma St. W 107-75 66%     5 - 0 +48.5 +26.8 +18.8
  Nov 23, 2016 23   Wisconsin W 71-56 68%     6 - 0 +30.7 +11.2 +20.2
  Nov 30, 2016 38   @ Indiana L 67-76 73%     6 - 1 +5.2 +1.3 +3.5
  Dec 04, 2016 298   Radford W 95-50 99%     7 - 1 +33.7 +13.6 +17.6
  Dec 07, 2016 87   Davidson W 83-74 94%     8 - 1 +12.1 +4.7 +6.6
  Dec 11, 2016 61   Tennessee W 73-71 90%     9 - 1 +8.6 +4.3 +4.3
  Dec 17, 2016 4   Kentucky L 100-103 52%     9 - 2 +17.0 +26.0 -8.7
  Dec 21, 2016 153   Northern Iowa W 85-42 97%     10 - 2 +41.0 +25.5 +20.1
  Dec 28, 2016 83   Monmouth W 102-74 94%     11 - 2 +31.3 +13.9 +12.7
  Dec 31, 2016 77   @ Georgia Tech L 63-75 85%     11 - 3 0 - 1 -2.7 -3.4 +1.7
  Jan 03, 2017 39   @ Clemson W 89-86 OT 73%     12 - 3 1 - 1 +17.1 +12.4 +4.4
  Jan 08, 2017 94   North Carolina St. W 107-56 95%     13 - 3 2 - 1 +53.3 +18.3 +28.4
  Jan 11, 2017 29   @ Wake Forest W 93-87 69%     14 - 3 3 - 1 +21.4 +17.1 +4.0
  Jan 14, 2017 18   Florida St. W 96-83 72%     15 - 3 4 - 1 +27.6 +18.0 +8.1
  Jan 16, 2017 46   Syracuse W 85-68 87%     16 - 3 5 - 1 +25.6 +17.3 +9.0
  Jan 21, 2017 138   @ Boston College W 90-82 93%     17 - 3 6 - 1 +11.9 +11.7 -0.4
  Jan 26, 2017 36   Virginia Tech W 91-72 85%     18 - 3 7 - 1 +28.2 +26.7 +3.2
  Jan 28, 2017 31   @ Miami (FL) L 62-77 69%     18 - 4 7 - 2 +0.4 -0.8 +1.3
  Jan 31, 2017 73   Pittsburgh W 80-78 92%     19 - 4 8 - 2 +7.1 +20.4 -12.9
  Feb 05, 2017 25   Notre Dame W 83-76 69%     20 - 4 9 - 2 +22.5 +19.9 +2.8
  Feb 09, 2017 10   @ Duke L 78-86 49%     20 - 5 9 - 3 +12.9 +17.9 -5.6
  Feb 15, 2017 94   @ North Carolina St. W 97-73 89%     21 - 5 10 - 3 +31.4 +21.3 +9.3
  Feb 18, 2017 11   Virginia W 65-41 69%     22 - 5 11 - 3 +39.4 +12.7 +29.9
  Feb 22, 2017 7   Louisville W 74-63 65%     23 - 5 12 - 3 +27.7 +8.9 +18.8
  Feb 25, 2017 73   @ Pittsburgh W 85-67 84%     24 - 5 13 - 3 +28.2 +25.4 +5.0
  Feb 27, 2017 11   @ Virginia L 43-53 51%     24 - 6 13 - 4 +10.4 -5.7 +13.8
  Mar 04, 2017 10   Duke W 90-83 68%     25 - 6 14 - 4 +22.8 +21.4 +1.4
  Mar 09, 2017 31   Miami (FL) W 78-53 77%     26 - 6 +37.9 +24.3 +16.8
  Mar 10, 2017 10   Duke L 83-93 59%     26 - 7 +8.4 +11.6 -2.6
Projected Record 26.0 - 7.0 14.0 - 4.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 100.0    100.0
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.7 37.8 52.2 9.6 0.4 100.0%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1.7 37.8 52.2 9.6 0.4 100.0%